HIGHLIGHT

📉 Ibovespa drops over 1% pressured by banks and takes profits after Friday's rally

The Ibovespa is trading sharply lower this Monday, mainly pressured by banking stocks and giving back part of the gains recorded last Friday. The movement occurs despite Wall Street trading higher, driven by the recovery of chipmakers after the US holiday.

Around 11:33 AM, the Ibovespa was down 1.23%, at 171,925 points.

In the domestic scenario, investors are also monitoring the public hearing held by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) regarding the trade investigation against Brazil based on Section 301.

Among corporate highlights, Braskem fell 2.08% following news that it has tightened its commercial policy. Meanwhile, Petrobras tracked the slight drop in oil prices, with preferred shares down 1.18% and common shares sliding 1.40%.

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HIGHLIGHT

📊 Future interest rates decline following Focus bulletin and relief in Treasuries

Future interest rates are trading lower across the entire curve this Monday, following the maintenance of the 2028 inflation projection for the second consecutive week and a downward revision of the 2026 estimate. The movement is also supported by the decline in US Treasury yields.

In the Focus bulletin, the IPCA (inflation) projection for 2026 fell from 5.33% to 5.30%, while the estimate for 2028 was maintained at 3.7%.

Investors are also tracking the US public hearing on the trade investigation against Brazil under Section 301.

At 10:49 AM:

• The Interbank Deposit (DI) rate for January 2027 decreased to 13.99% (vs. Friday's close of 14%).
• For January 2028, it yielded to 14.05% (vs. 14.09%).
• For January 2029, it dropped to 14.21% (vs. 14.25%).
• For January 2030, it moved to 14.31% (vs. 14.36%).
• And for January 2031, it fell to 14.33% (vs. 14.38%).

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HIGHLIGHT

💵 Dollar rises with DXY advance as market tracks US trade hearing regarding Brazil

The dollar is trading slightly higher against the real during the first hours of trading this Monday, tracking the advance of the DXY, an index that measures the greenback's global performance. The indicator rises ahead of the release of June's ISM Services data, which could offer new signals regarding economic activity in the United States.

Around 10:32 AM, the US currency was up 0.15%, at R$ 5.17. Meanwhile, the DXY rose 0.18%, to 101.05 points.

Another event remaining on investors' radar is the public hearing promoted by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) regarding the potential adoption of trade measures against Brazil. The market is monitoring the Brazilian government's negotiations to avoid new US tariffs.

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Future interest rates closed the day lower across the entire curve. According to Nicolas Borsoi, strategist at Tullett Prebon, the DI reacted to lower industrial production and Rogério Ceron's interview with the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo. The number two official at the Ministry of Finance stated that a Treasury intervention in the bond market, which has been under stress for weeks, would not be ruled out:

"The announcement to the market that rates are causing discomfort can bring interest rates down. It's like a referee telling players to stop the pushing and shoving in the penalty box," says Borsoi.

At the close:

• The Interbank Deposit (DI) rate for January 2027 fell to 14% (vs. Thursday's close of 14.035%).
• For January 2028, it eased to 14.09% (vs. 14.23%).
• For January 2029, it dropped to 14.25% (vs. 14.385%).
• For January 2030, it went to 14.365% (vs. 14.48%).
• And for January 2031, it retreated to 14.385% (vs. 14.49%).

3 days ago | Facebook | Twitter | Whatsapp

The Ibovespa rose once again in a session with reduced liquidity due to the US Independence Day holiday. At the end of the day, the index advanced 0.74%, to 174,070 points, returning to a level not seen since June 2nd.

"The weaker-than-expected US payroll (labor market data) relieved pressure on US interest rates, weaker activity data in Brazil reinforced room for further Selic cuts, and the Ibovespa closed higher for the second consecutive week," said Bruna Sene, Equity analyst at Rico, in a weekly performance analysis.

With heavy weight on the index, Vale (VALE3) rose 0.81%, and Petrobras (PETR4) advanced 0.63%. Banks also posted positive performances; BTG (BPAC11) climbed 2.53% and Bradesco (BBDC4) +0.88%.

With the decline in DI, cyclical companies rallied: Magazine Luiza (MGLU3) +3.28% and C&A (CEAB3) +1.85%.

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The dollar ended Friday down 0.76%, valued at R$ 5.16. The currency traded stably worldwide on a day of lower global liquidity due to the United States Independence Day holiday. The DXY, which measures the currency's performance against six major economies' currencies, was down 0.02% at the closing time of trading.

For Nicolas Borsoi, strategist at Tullett Prebon, the positive day for local interest rates favored foreign exchange inflows into the country, despite the lack of reference from the external market. For the week, the dollar remained virtually stable, at 0.1%.

3 days ago | Facebook | Twitter | Whatsapp

The Ibovespa is trading up moderately this Friday in a session of reduced liquidity due to the holiday in the United States. The index is supported by the drop in future interest rates and expectations of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve, which favors the appetite for emerging market assets.

Around 12:03 PM, the main index of the Brazilian stock market advanced 0.91%, to 174,357 points.

Among the positive highlights, Embraer shares rose 1.72%, quoted at R$ 95.95, after the company disclosed its best delivery performance for a first semester in 16 years.

Itaú Unibanco shares advanced 0.71%, to R$ 42.70, benefiting from the retreat in future interest rates.

In the domestic scenario, May's industrial production data, released by IBGE, showed an unexpected drop of 0.2%, interrupting a streak of four consecutive months of gains.

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🏭 Industrial production falls 0.2% in May, breaking a streak of four consecutive increases

Industrial production varied -0.2% in May this year, after recording four consecutive months of increases. In April, the sector had grown 0.7%. The result, released this Friday by IBGE, came below market analysts' expectations, who projected a 0.3% increase.

Compared to May 2025, the industry grew 0.2%, after advancing 2.7% in April. Year-to-date, the expansion was 1.4%, while over the last 12 months, it grew 0.4%.

The main activities dragging down the result in May were coke, oil derivatives, and biofuels (-6.1%) and mining/extractive industries (-2.6%).

(by Mayra Castro)
Read full article

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Future interest rates are trading lower across the entire curve this Friday, giving back part of the gains from recent sessions, after May's industrial production data, released by IBGE, showed an unexpected drop of 0.2%, breaking a streak of four consecutive months of gains.

According to analysts, the data reinforces the perception of an economic slowdown, which helps relieve some of the pressure on the yield curve.

The market is also operating with reduced liquidity today due to the closure of US markets for the July 4th holiday, US Independence Day.

At 10:43 AM, the Interbank Deposit (DI) contracts behaved as follows:

• January 2027: 14.005%, vs. 14.035% at Thursday's close;
• January 2028: 14.145%, vs. 14.230%;
• January 2029: 14.300%, vs. 14.385%;
• January 2030: 14.41%, vs. 14.48%;
• January 2031: 14.43%, vs. 14.49%.

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The dollar is trading down moderately against the real this Friday, on a day of closed markets in the United States due to the July 4th holiday, which tends to reduce trading liquidity in Brazil.

In the domestic scenario, investors are reacting to May's industrial production data, released by IBGE, which showed an unexpected drop of 0.2%, breaking a streak of four consecutive months of increases. Analysts' expectations pointed to a 0.3% advance.

Around 10:20 AM, the US currency fell 0.48%, quoted at R$ 5.18. Meanwhile, the DXY, an index measuring the dollar's performance globally, fell 0.03%, to 100.812 points, heading toward its worst week since May.

Investors continue to price in the US payroll data released the previous day, which came in weaker than expected, diminishing bets on an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (FED).

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Future interest rates closed Thursday higher for the second consecutive session, even after the US payroll showed the creation of only 57,000 jobs in June, well below the expectation of 110,000, reducing bets on monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.

In the domestic market, the curve was pressured by the robust auction of fixed-rate Treasury bonds, in addition to persistent concerns over the fiscal scenario and uncertainties surrounding the elections.

At 11:43 AM, the Interbank Deposit (DI) contracts behaved as follows:

• January 2027: 14.03%, vs. 14.02% at Wednesday's close;
• January 2028: 14.20%, vs. 14.09%;
• January 2029: 14.38%, vs. 14.23%;
• January 2030: 14.48%, vs. 14.31%;
• January 2031: 14.49%, vs. 14.33%.

4 days ago | Facebook | Twitter | Whatsapp

The Ibovespa closed up 0.64%, at 172,787.62 points, driven by increased risk appetite after the US payroll came in well below expectations.

The data reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve might delay a rate hike, favoring emerging markets. Among the positive highlights, banking stocks, Petrobras, and Vale advanced 0.32% and 0.13%, respectively.

On the negative side, Marfrig, Natura, and Magazine Luiza led losses, pressured by rising future interest rates and company-specific factors.

4 days ago | Facebook | Twitter | Whatsapp

The spot dollar ended Thursday practically stable, with a slight drop of 0.04%, quoted at R$ 5.2083, after a volatile session marked by the release of the United States payroll.

The much lower-than-expected job creation reduced bets on a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September, pressuring the US currency abroad.

In the late afternoon, the August future dollar advanced 0.04%, to R$ 5.244, while the DXY index fell 0.51%, to 100.877 points.

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Wall Street stock exchanges were trading mixed on Thursday, but with a positive bias, following the release of a lower-than-expected Payroll, which reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could start a rate cut cycle in the coming months.

The report showed the creation of 57,000 jobs in June, well below the 113,000 projected by the market. Furthermore, data from the two previous months were revised downward, reinforcing the perception of a slowing US labor market.

According to analysts, weakening employment reduces pressure for the Fed to maintain a more restrictive monetary policy and increases the possibility of benchmark interest rate cuts later this year.

Around 12:11 PM, the Dow Jones index advanced 0.73%, to 52,690 points. The S&P 500 rose 0.13%, to 7,492 points, while the Nasdaq retreated 0.36%, to 25,938 points.

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After rising more than 1% at the open, in its first positive session of the week, the Ibovespa pared its gains throughout the late morning, although it is still rising, driven by relief in Wall Street markets after a lower-than-expected US payroll, which led to bets that the Fed should not raise rates anytime soon.

Around 12:11 PM, the stock market's main index rose 0.32%, to 172,243 points.

Locally, Vale (VALE3) leads the positive side following an earlier advance in iron ore. The miner rose 0.27%, trading at R$ 78,18.

Among the negative highlights is Natura (NATU3), which turned negative after Advent International, one of the world's largest private equity firms, bought a 6.6% stake in the company's capital.

In March, Advent had committed to acquiring between 8% and 10% of the company's shares over a six-month period. The shares fell 2.91%, to R$ 8.35.

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Future interest rates are trading higher across the entire curve this Thursday, giving back part of the drop recorded at the beginning of the session, following a robust auction of public bonds held by the National Treasury. The offer of 20 million LTNs and 3.56 million NTN-Fs pressured mainly the long end of the curve.

Earlier, rates retreated in reaction to the United States Payroll, which showed the creation of 57,000 jobs in June, below the 113,000 expected by the market.

At 11:43 AM, the Interbank Deposit (DI) contracts behaved as follows:

• January 2027: 14.03%, vs. 14.02% at Wednesday's close;
• January 2028: 14.15%, vs. 14.09%;
• January 2029: 14.32%, vs. 14.23%;
• January 2030: 14.42%, vs. 14.31%;
• January 2031: 14.45%, vs. 14.33%.

4 days ago | Facebook | Twitter | Whatsapp

HIGHLIGHT

Dollar pares losses after hitting R$ 5.15 following weaker-than-expected US Payroll

After hitting a low of R$ 5.15 in the morning, the dollar began to pare the losses recorded since the opening, still pressured by the release of the Payroll, the main indicator of the United States labor market, which came in below expectations.

According to the report, the US economy created 57,000 jobs in June, well below the estimate of 113,000 projected by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

The movement is accompanied by a drop in US Treasury yields and the expiration of US$ 2.05 billion in FX line contracts.

Around 11:36 AM, the US currency was down 0.21%, quoted at R$ 5.19. Meanwhile, the DXY index, the global dollar index, fell 0.61%, to 100.78 points.

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Future interest rates closed higher across the entire curve, tracking the worsening of domestic risk perception following the sanctions announced by the US Treasury Department against Brazilians and companies linked to the PCC, as well as the repercussions of the AtlasIntel poll.

Remarks from Fed official Kevin Warsh, stating that inflation risks have diminished in recent weeks, eased some of the pressure throughout the day but did not prevent the advance of rates.

The DI curve continues to price the Selic rate around 14% at the end of the year, with a cut of about 18 basis points in August.

At the close, the Interbank Deposit (DI) contracts behaved as follows:

• January 2027: 14.15%, vs. 14.00% at Tuesday's close;
• January 2028: 14.09%, vs. 14.01%;
• January 2029: 14.23%, vs. 14.11%;
• January 2030: 14.31%, vs. 14.18%;
• January 2031: 14.30%, vs. 14.21%.

5 days ago | Facebook | Twitter | Whatsapp

Wall Street stock exchanges closed mostly lower this Wednesday, amid indicators that reinforced the resilience of the US economy and statements by Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh that inflation risks have diminished in recent weeks.

During his participation in the Annual Central Banking Forum in Sintra, Portugal, Warsh reiterated the commitment to bring inflation back to the 2% target and reaffirmed that he does not intend to advance the next steps of monetary policy. For analysts, the statements reduced bets on a rate hike at the July meeting.

In the economic scenario, data showed expansion in US manufacturing activity for the sixth consecutive month, a slowdown in cost inflation, and a still resilient labor market.

The Dow Jones closed down 0.03%, the S&P 500 fell 0.22%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.66%.

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The Ibovespa ended the session practically stable, in line with the performance of Wall Street markets, in a session marked by falling oil prices and the repercussions of sanctions announced by the United States against Brazilians and companies linked to the PCC.

The stock market's main index fell 0.20%, to 171,689 points.

Energy sector shares were among the main decliners on the index, while Petrobras limited its losses and ended higher, despite announcing reductions in diesel and aviation kerosene prices.

Vale also advanced, tracking the rise of iron ore in Singapore.